|2018-12-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
经济学人智库最新报告称：“随着利率上升和通胀开始限制主要发达经济体的消费，全球经济将在2019 - 2020年降温，市场的不确定性削弱了新兴市场的基本面。”
陈菲 摘译自 路透社
Oil prices climb on OPEC-led supply cuts, Asian stock rally
Oil prices rose by around 1 percent on Wednesday amid a stock market rebound and on expectations that an OPEC-led output cut for 2019 would stabilize the supply-demand balance.
International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $60.84 per barrel at 0742 GMT, up 64 cents, or 1.1 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $52.06 per barrel, up 41 cents, or 0.8 percent.
The higher prices came amid an increase in Asian share markets on Wednesday.
Despite Tuesday’s more confident market, analysts warned of an economic slowdown.
“The global economy is set to cool in 2019-20, as rising interest rates and inflation begin to limit consumption in major developed economies, and market uncertainty weakens the fundamentals in emerging markets,” the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its latest outlook.
British bank Barclays said in its 2019 commodities outlook that “the major risk to the near-term outlook relates to a faster-than-expected deterioration in economic activity”.
In oil market fundamentals, a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including Russia last week to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) has supported prices this week.
“OPEC production curbs will stabilize the market,” ANZ bank said on Wednesday.
Crude prices had lost a third of their value between early October and the announcement of the cuts. Some analysts warn, though, that the agreement may not have the effect hoped for.
Fereidun Fesharaki of energy consultancy FGE said in a note that the OPEC-led cuts would likely be “insufficient to mop up the inventories in the targeted three-month period till the end of the first quarter of 2019”.
As a result, FGE said prices were “likely to hover in the $55-$60 per barrel range for Brent, with WTI sitting some $5-$10 per barrel below this given current fundamentals”.
Undermining the supply cuts is soaring output in the United States, where crude production C-OUT-T-EIA has hit a record 11.7 million bpd.
The United States is set to end 2018 as the world’s top oil producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying on Tuesday the nation’s annualized average output would be 10.88 million bpd for the full year.
The 2018 output increase would be 1.53 million bpd, the EIA said, adding that it expected production to average an unprecedented 12.06 million bpd in 2019.