|2019-11-26 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据海事新闻11月25日消息称，澳大利亚澳新银行(ANZ bank)表示，由于全球产量飙升和合同条件苛刻，今年全球LNG市场可能供过于求，达到204亿立方米，比需求多出约4%。
该银行分析师Daniy Hynes和Soni Kumari在一份报告中表示：“随着整个亚洲和北美的产能扩张使市场不堪重负，LNG市场遇到了障碍。”
曹海斌 摘译自 海事新闻
LNG market to be 20.4bcm long in 2019
The world’s LNG market is likely to be oversupplied this year by 20.4bcm – around 4% more than demand – due to surging global output and rigid contract conditions, Australia’s ANZ bank said.
ANZ expected global LNG supplies to rise 32m tonnes to 371m tonnes this year, while demand was only likely to rise by 17m tonnes.
“The LNG market has hit a roadblock as capacity expansions throughout Asia and North America overwhelm the market,” said the bank’s analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari in a note.
“That has seen about 15mt [20.4bcm] a year of supply struggle to find a home, a big reason behind the downward pressure on spot LNG prices we have seen this year.”
The glut has been compounded by the nature of most LNG supply deals. Around 95% of LNG is sold under contracts, with around half indexed against oil, the bank said.
“Such volumes could be attracting USD10/mmbtu, well above the current spot price. These prices would keep most exporters cash-flow positive.”
This was acting to discourage suppliers from curbing output, even in the face of globally saturated gas markets and high inventories, the analysts said.
ANZ saw the trend continuing well into next year. On the one hand, buyers have been making use of “contract tolerance” to limit their purchases, forcing producers to sell excess volumes into the spot market.
Some have also deferred cargoes into next year, yet not at a scale that would force suppliers to cancel operations.
In addition, forecasts of a mild winter in Asia – home to the world’s biggest LNG buyers – provided a “bleak” outlook for a resurgence in demand.
“Current weather forecasts suggest a milder than normal winter in North Asia. Tokyo and Seoul have all seen the number of ‘heating degree’ days dip below the 10-year average in recent weeks.”
The bank saw the possibility the US may yet scale back deliveries – which have surged to Europe this year – if LNG fetches too little premium against the local Henry Hub gas price for an extended period.
The prospect of tighter shipping emissions rules kicking in next year provided some potential for added demand, but only over the latter half of 2020, the analysts said.