|2019-12-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻
Deepwater rising: The state of the global deepwater industry
The global deepwater industry is set to continue to grow: output is expected to reach 14.5 million boe/d by 2025, with strong growth in both oil and gas.
A challenging few years during the downturn forced deepwater to reinvent itself by cutting costs, cycle times and breakevens. It has emerged much stronger and is ready for the next phase of investment – much of which will be in deeper waters and in new plays and new countries. Brazil will continue to lead on investment and production in its prolific Santos Basin, but major discoveries over the past decade have been transformational for Mozambique, Israel, Egypt and Guyana. And while the type and quality of projects have changed, deepwater is here to stay.
Deepwater is one of the great growth themes of the oil and gas industry. It's often associated with large, expensive and complex long-cycle projects, but can be highly rewarding for those willing to take on the risks.
Typically, deepwater investment returns average 23%. But there is a wide variation: for one in five assets, the number is below 15%.
The best returns come from smaller oil projects with quick tie-backs to host facilities, whereas gas has systematically lower returns in comparison to oil.
Over the past 10 years, gas has made up 58% of volumes discovered, and it is set to become more prominent. Less than half of that is currently commercial: many major gas discoveries remain undeveloped due to market constraints and high costs.
Despite its successes, mistakes in the deepwater are costly. A run of dry holes or a project delay can destroy economics – with operators unable to ramp up or down activity as easily as for onshore resources.
By 2023, ultra-deepwater should account for more than half of overall deepwater production – with much of this growth coming from quality oil assets in Brazil, Guyana and the US.