|2019-12-12 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站12月10日报道 布伦特原油现货价格11月份平均为63美元/桶，比10月份上涨3美元/桶。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新发布的短期能源展望（STEO），过去一个月原油价格上涨可能反映了需求侧因素和供给侧因素的温和上涨压力。
吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal
EIA: recent oil prices supported by better economic data, further OPEC cut
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63/bbl in November, up $3/bbl from October. According to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the increase in crude oil prices over the past month likely reflected modest upward pressures from both demand-side factors and supply-side factors.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of third-quarter 2019 gross domestic product (GDP). This estimate indicated that real US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, a faster rate than previously estimated and an increase from growth of 2.0% in the second quarter..
Concurrently, the S&P 500 equity index closed at a record 3,153.6 on November 27—the day the US GDP estimate was released—an increase of 2.8% from the beginning of the month. The S&P 500 subsequently declined in late November and early December . Overall, the S&P 500 index was up 2.4% in November.
On the supply side, markets adjusted expectations ahead of the Dec. 6 meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries. Expectations that OPEC and its partners would extend or possibly deepen the cuts, helped support crude oil prices.
On Dec. 6, OPEC and a group of other oil producers announced they were deepening production cuts originally announced in December 2018 (OGJ Online, Dec. 5, 2019). The group is now targeting production that is 1.7 million b/d lower than in October 2018, compared with the former target reduction of 1.2 million b/d.
OPEC announced that the cuts would be in effect through the end of March 2020. However, EIA assumes that OPEC will limit production through all of 2020, amid a forecast of rising oil inventories.
EIA expects OPEC production to fall in 2020. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.3 million b/d in 2020, down by 500,000 b/d from 2019.
However, EIA forecasts that increased non-OPEC production will more than offset those declines and that global liquid fuels supply will rise by 1.5 million b/d in 2020.
EIA forecasts global fuels demand will rise by 1.4 million b/d next year and that Brent prices will average $61/bbl in 2020, down from $64/bbl in 2019.
EIA expects the downward price pressures to be concentrated in the first half of 2020, when global oil inventories are forecast to rise. Prices will begin to rise in the second half of next year based on this STEO’s forecast of global oil inventory draws over that period.