|2020-03-16 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站3月12日伦敦报道 根据ICIS的分析，欧洲2020年较低的GDP增长可能会减少对聚合物的需求，尽管去库存效应可能不如2008-2009年金融危机时明显。
王磊 摘译自 ICIS
Europe polymers demand to be hit by slowing GDP growth
Europe's lower GDP growth in 2020 could cut demand for polymers, although the destocking effect may be less pronounced than in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, according to analysis by ICIS.
Three interlinked factors are currently impacting polymer demand in Europe and globally: lower crude oil prices, coronavirus, and general economic malaise.
These factors are not independent of each other, obviously: weaker demand from the coronavirus adds to the economic malaise and weak oil prices.
GDP forecasts are being downgraded on an almost daily basis.
The coronavirus outbreak and, more importantly, lockdown efforts by national governments have already led to lower demand.
London-based analysts at Oxford Economics have cut GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone to 0.6% this year, the weakest in seven years, and around 1.3 percentage points lower than forecasts a year ago.
In theory this leads to a cut in demand for plastics across the European region.
The most impacted are polyester fibres which are used for clothing, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene (PP).
Using regression analysis, we can see that for many polymers the 0.6% GDP growth rate could translate as a fall in demand for resin in 2020, with PVC and low density polyethylene (LDPE) likely to be down around 1.5%.