|2020-03-17 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据3月16日Asia Times报道，俄罗斯表示，该国可以每天增加50万桶的产量。沙特阿拉伯宣布将其石油价格下调6-8美元/桶，并承诺将4月份的日产量提高至1230万桶，高于其额定产能，并计划将产能扩大到1300万桶/天，不过这可能需要几年的时间。
王佳晶 摘译自 Asia Times
Oil price war a test of strength for producers
Russia itself says it can add 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia made its “shock and awe” announcement designed to win a quick victory, slashing its prices by US$6-$8 per barrel and promising to boost April production to 12.3 million barrels per day, above its nominal capacity, and to expand that capacity to 13mbpd, likely the work of a few years.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), will raise production from 3mbpd to test out its newly minted 4mbpd capacity. Iraq could add 350,000bpd if its creaky export facilities hold up; Nigeria might raise production around 100,000bpd, and Kuwait can add 250,000bpd from its joint-production Neutral Zone with Saudi Arabia.
OPEC has ended up fighting the right battle, but perhaps at the wrong time. Between the oil-price crash in late 2014 and the OPEC+ agreement to limit production that went into force at the start of 2017, US oil production fell by 1mbpd. Since then, as the deal boosted prices, the US added 5.5mbpd, Russian production rose slightly despite its promises to cut, and Saudi output dropped 1mbpd.
The price received by Saudi Arabia for its crude-oil exports fell from about $50 per barrel before the meeting to about $26 now. However, the volume of exports will rise from about 7.25mbpd to more than 10mbpd: a halving in prices has reduced revenues by some 28%.
Exceptionally low production costs keep state oil firms highly profitable, but they have to fund government budgets with pegged exchange rates and break-even budget prices that range from $50 to more than $100 per barrel. Sovereign wealth funds, debt and asset sales can keep the stronger Gulf states afloat for years, but weaker Middle East countries could quickly sink.
Assuming Russia slashes prices to compete, its revenue will drop 45%. Its oil companies, which need heavy reinvestment and development of new costly fields in the Arctic and East Siberia, will see their production gradually fall. But since 2014, the Russian budget has been fortified against lower oil prices and Western sanctions. Its break-even oil price is around $42 per barrel, its exchange rate is flexible, and it could spare $25 billion annually from its sovereign wealth fund to prop up the budget over several years.
Meanwhile, US shale producers face decimation. Much of their hedging is ineffective at prices below $45 per barrel, and anyway expires almost totally before 2021. Shale output may drop as fast as 250,000bpd monthly without reinvestment. Investors were already tired of a lack of financial returns, while most potential efficiency gains have been reaped post-2014. Supermajors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron had bet heavily on shale and they will survive. But if they acquire assets of smaller bankrupt competitors, it will be to sit on them until prices improve.?