|2020-03-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻
Up to 3 million bpd of extra oil could hit market from April
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million bpd, Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800 000 bbl from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen says, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. Rystad Energy believes their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, the country’s April crude production is expected to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.