|2020-03-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
裘寅 编译自 路透社
Oil industry may fill global storage in months as record glut builds
The oil market could see a record supply surplus in April as coronavirus wipes out demand and big producers pump more, creating a global glut that threatens to overwhelm storage capacity within months and force widespread industry shutdowns, analysts said on Wednesday.Crude is already gushing into storage at land and sea worldwide as countries curb travel and economic activity falls due to coronavirus. Storage levels are rising even before a wave of supply hits the market from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers who are gearing up to fight a price war for market share.
U.S. benchmark crude CLc1 fell to its lowest since April 2002 at $22.60 a barrel on Wednesday, and is down more than 60 percent since the start of the year. Brent crude prices have fallen almost 45% in March alone, following the most pronounced demand destruction since the financial and economic crisis of 2008.
As storage reaches capacity, a slide towards $10 per barrel is possible, according to some investors and analysts. That last happened during the 1998 glut before both oil companies and oil producing nations curbed supply.
Some Canadian crude is already trading not far off $10 per barrel because of steep price discounts to U.S. benchmark WTI crude.
“We believe we have not seen the worst of the price rout yet, as the market will soon come to realise that it may be facing one of the largest supply surpluses in modern oil market history in April,” said Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaguen.
IHS Markit analysts estimated the global oil supply surplus on a monthly basis to range between 4 million barrels per day (bpd) and 10 million bpd from February to May 2020 - equal to 4-10% of global demand.