|2020-04-15 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
Rystad Energy资深分析师Thomas Liles表示："由于4月和5月北美需求严重受损，预计第二季加拿大西部油砂和重油产能可能削减超过110万桶/天，短期内还有进一步下滑的风险。"
邹勤 摘译自 油田技术
Canada most affected by shut-ins so far, according to Rystad Energy
A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Canada is the oil producer most affected so far, with the damage estimated to reach above 1.1 million bpd in shut-in production in 2Q20.
Thus far, Canada is estimated to have shut-in oil production of at least 325 000 bpd, followed by Iraq (300 000 bpd) and Brazil (200 000 bpd). Although the US is also likely to be shutting-in hundreds of thousands of barrels of production as well, numbers are not yet official and are not included in our estimates.
“Due to the severity of demand destruction in North America in April and May, we estimate that shuttered oil sands and heavy oil curtailments in Western Canada could exceed 1.1 million bpd in 2Q020, with additional near-term downside risk,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Thomas Liles.
Rystad's curtailment forecasts for the rest of the year have increased to 513 000 bpd for 3Q20 and 293 000 bpd for 4Q20.
In March Rystad predicted that Western Canadian crude storage was likely to approach maximum capacity by the end of the month at then-current production rates. Movements in benchmark Canadian oil prices since 1 April appear to corroborate mounting pressure on in-basin storage capacity, with lighter Canadian benchmark prices decoupling from WTI over the past week.
Murmurings from midstream players have underscored the strain on storage capacity and the production cuts this has already brought. Recent communication from upstream players has also highlighted the storage conundrum and all but assured deeper near-term cuts.