|2020-04-17 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月15日消息 国际能源署（IEA）在其4月份的石油市场报告中表示，如果石油产量大幅下降，部分石油进入战略储备，需求开始复苏，那么2020年下半年将出现供不应求的局面。
王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal
IEA: 2020 second half could see oil demand exceed supply
If oil production falls sharply, some oil goes into strategic stocks, and demand begins to recover, the second half of 2020 will see demand exceed supply, the International Energy Agency said in its April Oil Market Report.
On Apr. 12, oil producers in the OPEC+ group agreed to cut output by an initial 9.7 million b/d versus their agreed baseline, effective May 1. Meantime, G20 countries offered their support of efforts by OPEC+ countries to stabilize the oil market and, in some cases, discussed output cuts that would take place immediately or over time.
The OPEC+ and G20 initiatives will impact the oil market in three ways, according to IEA.
First, to reach the baseline, May’s OPEC+ production cut will be 10.7 million b/d and not 9.7 million b/d, as April production was high. This will provide some immediate relief from the supply surplus in the coming weeks, lowering the peak of the build-up of stocks.
Second, four countries (India, Korea, and the US.etc) have either offered their strategic storage capacity to industry to temporarily park unwanted barrels or are considering increasing their strategic stocks to take advantage of lower prices. This will create extra headroom for the impending stock build-up, helping the market get past the hump.
Third, other producers, with the US and Canada likely to be the largest contributors, could see output fall by around 3.5 million b/d in the coming months due to the impact of lower prices, according to IEA estimates. The loss of this supply combined with the OPEC+ cuts will shift the market into a deficit in the second half of 2020, ensuring an end to the build-up of stocks and a return to more normal market conditions.