|2020-04-21 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
洪伟立 摘译自 FXstreet
Crude oil down over 18%, can it drop to $10?
Oil has dropped to a 21-year low today. Basically, bears are out for blood. The WTI West Texas Crude Oil dropped over 18 percent today and made a low of $14.45, a price level that has surprised traders today. The steep fall in the price is because of the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage place given the fact that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices can drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And here it is why.
Since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, oil’s demand has been crippled. There is little done from the supply side, the CAPEX cut by energy companies aren’t enough, we need organic oil production cut from the U.S.
If the price falls to $13 to $16 range (which it already has), the upside range could be $20 to $23.
If the price falls to $10 to $13, a likely scenario, the immediate ceiling level could be $15 to $18.
The bottom line is that there is no doubt that oil prices are way oversold at the current level, but given the circumstances, it is likely that the price may continue to fall further because the rig count hasn’t touched its bottom yet. But for an investor who holds a long term perspective, a time frame of 12 months to 24 months, the current plunge in oil price represents an opportunity.