|2020-04-30 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价4月28日，路透社John Kemp周一表示，全球石油储备空间不足，产量下降速度不够快，但上周对冲基金购买的WTI合约数量创下纪录。上周的原油期货购买量为1.22亿桶，至少是去年12月以来的最高水平。Kemp表示，市场对油价反弹的预期促使购买量增加。尽管没有迹象表明这种迹象一定会出现，但买家必须要做好这种反弹很快发生的准备。相反，最新的价格走势表明情况恰恰相反。周一，西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌了25%，至每桶13美元以下，周二在亚洲交易中继续下跌，跌破每桶11美元。
企业产品合作伙伴公司（Enterprise Products Partners）本月早些时候在其向北的海运管道中为生产商提供了产能，使那些难以将石油存放在墨西哥湾附近的美国石油生产商能够将石油运往库欣的存储中心。
洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价
Traders Are Betting Big On An Oil Price Rebound
Global oil storage space is running low, production is not falling quickly enough, and yet last week hedge funds bought a record amount of WTI contracts, Reuters’ John Kemp said Monday. At the equivalent of 122 million barrels, the amount of crude futures purchased last week was the highest since at least last December. According to Kemp, the reason for the increased buying is an expectation of an oil price rebound. The buyers must expect this rebound to take place soon, even though there are no indications to support such an attitude. On the contrary, the latest price moves suggest the opposite. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate dropped by 25 percent to less than $13 a barrel and continued falling on Tuesday in Asian trading, sinking below $11 a barrel.
The United States Oil Fund said yesterday that it would sell all its oil futures for June delivery within four days. That had a lot to do with the drop in WTI prices, and it also had a lot to do with the growing worry about storage space – a worry that did not bother hedge funds and other market-making buyers last week. It may change their mind this week, however.
Goldman Sachs yesterday became the latest to join the rising number of oil storage doomsayers. The investment bank said that the world’s storage capacity could reach its limit within just three weeks. This, the bank’s analysts said in a note, would heighten volatility and keep it high until supply and demand rebalances. For this to happen, supply needs to decline by another 18 million bpd next month, as this is the size of demand loss that Goldman expects.
That is much easier said than done, because those additional 18 million barrels per day comes on the heels of a demand loss totaling 29 million bpd, according to International Energy Agency estimates for April.
In addition to the 9.7 million bpd in OPEC+ cuts that should begin next month, U.S. production has fallen by some 600,000 bpd and counting, and Canada has slashed its oil production by 300,000 bpd. Brazil has cut 200,000 bpd off its daily average, Reuters reports.
This is barely above 1 million bpd in production cuts outside OPEC+. While the chances are that U.S. production cuts will likely accelerate in the coming weeks as companies rush to shut in the wells that produce oil at rates higher than the selling price, it may be too little too late.
Global oil storage is filling at a rate of 10 million bpd, according to data from commodities analysis firm Kayrros, reported by the Wall Street Journal. The firm’s chief analyst Antoine Halff called this rate monstrous and warned that if it continues unabated, storage would be full in a little over three months.
Luckily for the industry, the rate of additions has slowed down a bit, Kayrros product manager Augustin Prate told Oilprice.
“Crude demand in China has almost fully recovered, with refinery runs back to pre-lockdown levels,” Prate said.
The United States is among the places where storage space is already tight, so any improvement in demand would be a cause for celebration. Cushing, the country’s largest oil storage complex, added 10 percent last week, to 59.7 million barrels. This is 25 million barrels below maximum capacity, which may sound like a lot. It isn’t if the rate of addition continues.
Enterprise Products Partners earlier this month offered producers space in its northbound Seaway pipeline, providing U.S. oil producers struggling to place their oil near the Gulf Coast the ability to ship their barrels to the storage hub at Cushing.
The problem—for producers and bullish hedge funds alike—is that there isn’t a quick solution to the storage problem. Shutting in wells takes time and even setting wells on fire—which some Russian producers are reportedly considering as one way to reduce output quickly—takes time.
This is time that many smaller oil producers don’t have, so bankruptcies are on the way. This would mean a more lasting decline in production, which is good news for bulls. The question remains whether this decline will happen soon enough. For now, this is highly unlikely, so we may see another massive selloff when the next front-month oil contract nears expiry.