|2020-05-11 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油5月9日报道，IHS Markit预计，2020年第二季度的石油需求将比一年前减少2200万桶/天。
IHS Markit副总裁兼石油市场主管吉姆·伯克哈德(Jim Burkhard)表示“全球石油供应正迅速、残酷地调整到较低的水平，这是一次大规模的停产。所有生产国都受制于残酷的市场力量，尽管可能受到影响的程度不一，但都不可避免。”
洪伟立 摘译自 世界石油
Crashing oil demand drives a 17 MMbpd global output cut in Q2
Consulting firm IHS Markit expects oil demand in the second quarter of 2020 to be 22 MMbpd less than a year ago.
This collapse in demand combined with low oil prices, storage constraints and government ordered cuts are driving what is an extraordinary level of liquids production cuts and shut-ins around the world.
“The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway. All producing countries are subject to the same brutal market forces. Some will be impacted more than others. But there is nowhere to hide,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets at IHS Markit.
North America and OPEC members, as well as countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States—particularly Russia—are expected to be the source of most of the production cuts.
Exactly where, why and how supply cuts will take place is a complex matter. There is no fixed equation. Oil is produced in a wide variety of environments, which means there is no fixed equation and decision factors vary.
IHS Markit has identified three key factors that shape production cut decisions:
Technical and logistical factors—including restart complexity. Technical factors relate to the degree of operational complexity such as terrain, field depletion, reservoir drive, production system configuration and reservoir fluid composition. Complexity and field maturity influence how easy or difficult restarting production could be, including whether output could be forever lost or simply deferred. Other technical-related factors are health, safety, and worker availability. Logistical factors are offtake demand, transport options, and oil storage availability.
Financial considerations. These include operating margins, current oil price levels, future expectations of the oil price, financial health of the operator, capital availability and alternative spending options—such as deciding to spend money on other projects.
Regulatory and contractual conditions. These include ensuring compliance with government requirements for shutting-in wells, government orders to adjust production, and contractual obligations. Government orders to comply with the OPEC+ agreement to cut production fall into this category. Obligation to deliver associated gas (i.e. gas that is produced as byproduct from a crude oil well) is an example of a contractual condition that could impact production decisions. For upstream operations that are integrated with downstream assets—such as refineries and petrochemical facilities—downstream market conditions and needs of downstream assets could impact decisions about upstream output, especially when the assets are under combined ownership.