|2020-08-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据世界管道8月10日报道，Roger Diwan和IHS Markit能源咨询服务公司称，石油市场已经回到相对稳定的水平，布伦特原油价格在40至45美元/桶的窄幅区间内，并有可能在2021年下半年最终突破50美元/桶大关。
IHS Markit金融服务副总裁Roger Diwan表示，沙特阿拉伯及其欧佩克合作伙伴在5月和6月进行了创纪录的减产，在加速全球石油市场实现再平衡方面发挥了关键作用。随着需求从4月份的低点复苏，市场又多了一个月的时间来站稳脚跟，这些出口企业现在已从管理危机期间的直接盈余，转向管理复苏。
王佳晶 摘译自 世界管道
Outlook for crude oil prices strengthens through 2021 as markets approach key ‘pivot point’ of recovery
Oil markets have returned to relatively stable ground with Brent prices within a narrow US$40 – 45/bbl range and could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark in the second half of 2021, according to Roger Diwan and the IHS Markit Energy Advisory Service.
The IHS Markit Brent price outlook has been revised upward to an average price of S$42.35/bbl in 2020 and S$49.25/bbl in 2021 – up US$7.09/bbl and US$5.25/bbl, respectively, from the outlook in May.
Emerging bruised and battered from the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak, oil markets are now at a delicate pivot point as they transition to phase II of the IHS Markit Three Phases of Oil Markets Recovery.
“The record cuts set in motion in May and June by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners played a pivotal role in accelerating the improbable rebalancing of global oil markets. With demand recovering from April lows and after giving markets an extra month to find their footing, these exporters have now moved from managing the immediate surplus of the crisis towards managing the recovery.” – Roger Diwan, Vice President Financial Services, IHS Markit.
Phase II of the recovery (the “just-in-time oil market” phase) is a delicate transition phase in which surplus inventories are worked down in parallel with rising supply as spare supply capacity returns from Vienna Alliance and North American producers.
OPEC+ and the United States are bringing back over 4 million bpd of production in July and August. Meanwhile, the global demand recovery is showing clear signs of plateauing and Chinese crude buying has begun to soften.
Barring a large second wave of COVID-19 cases driving widespread economic shutdowns, IHS Markit expects Brent will stay within a US$40 - 47/bbl price band on average over the next four quarters.
This stabilisation period will make way for the more structural stage of the recovery process, wherein the progressive normalization of demand and OECD commercial stocks allows a return of most spare capacity in Russia and in the key producing countries in the Gulf. This could start as early as the second half of 2021, when Brent prices could conclusively pass the US$50/bbl mark.