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   您的位置: 专题 >>> 新闻频道专题 >>> 2020年专题 >>> 油气企业转型之“辨”(二)
 

沙特阿美乐观情绪及美国疫情缓解迹象推动油价上涨

2020-08-17 来源: 中国石化新闻网
石化新闻
 

    中国石化新闻网讯 据8月11日Rigzone报道,沙特阿美对原油市场的乐观评估以及美国冠状病毒疫情稍有放缓的迹象提振了市场人气,油价小幅走高,创下一周内最大单日涨幅。

    纽约期货价格在周一上涨1.8%,突破每桶42美元。世界最大的石油生产商沙特阿美继续推进今年支付750亿美元股息的计划,并表示亚洲原油需求几乎回到了病毒爆发前的水平。

    近几周来,美元走软也在提振油价,如果美国的经济刺激谈判(目前仍陷入僵局)取得成果,油价可能会进一步上涨。原油价格此前一度上涨1.1%,但随着衡量美元走强指标大幅跃升,原油价格随后回吐了涨幅。

    西德克萨斯中质原油正在试探过去一个月来每桶40美元至42美元区间的上限,迄今为止,欧佩克+原油价格回升对市场影响不大。值得注意的是,疫情仍在世界许多地区肆虐,甚至卷土重来。另一个潜在的石油利好消息是,分析人士预测美国原油库存将下降,这将是连续第三周下降。

    新加坡Vanda Insights创始人Vandana Hari表示:"对美国财政刺激政策将持续的预期,令美元前景进一步走软,而美国石油需求复苏前景向好,从而助推股市走强。油价未来进一步的增长可能有限,因为全球消费复苏似乎已经停滞。”

    截至伦敦时间早上7:38,纽约商品交易所9月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油价格上涨0.4%,至每桶42.09美元。目前的收盘价接近8月5日收盘价42.19美元,这是五个月来的最高收盘点位。

    欧洲期货交易所10月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨0.1%,至每桶45.02美元,周一上涨1.3%。上海国际能源交易所原油期货价格上涨0.4%,至每桶285.4元人民币,周一上涨0.9%。

    布伦特3个月期远期合约的期货溢价为每桶1.05美元,而7月底时为每桶87美分。即期合约价格低于远期合约价格的市场结构表明,市场对供应过剩的紧张情绪正在加剧。

    尽管欧佩克+的产量开始恢复,但彭博社数据显示,挪威9月份的日产量将减少26.1万桶。这将使其成为大西洋流域石油生产商出货量下降的最大贡献者。

    FlightRadar24的数据显示,受重创的航空燃油市场的需求正开始复苏,上周,全球商业航班数量增长了近6%。然而,平均6.7万架的飞行数量仍然低于病毒爆发前10万多架的水平。

    与此同时,美国页岩油生产商正处于一个十字路口,他们发现自己比以往任何时候都更有效率。他们可以继续钻探,但这有可能压低油价,或者用这些钱偿还债务。

    王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone

    原文如下:

    Oil Up on Upbeat Aramco and US Virus Easing Signs

    Oil edged higher following the biggest daily advance in a week as Saudi Aramco’s upbeat assessment of the crude market and signs the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. is decelerating aided sentiment.

    Futures in New York rose past $42 a barrel after climbing 1.8% Monday. Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, pressed ahead with a plan to pay $75 billion in dividends this year and said that Asian crude demand was almost back to pre-virus levels. The number of Americans hospitalized due to Covid-19 fell below 50,000 for the first time in a month as a spike in the Sun Belt eased.

    Weakness in the dollar has also been aiding oil in recent weeks and there could be further currency-related gains if stimulus negotiations in the U.S. -- which remain deadlocked -- bear fruit. Crude pared gains after rising as much as 1.1% earlier as a gauge of dollar strength jumped.

    West Texas Intermediate crude is testing the upper limit of the $40 to $42 a barrel range it’s been in for the past month, with the return of some OPEC+ barrels having little market impact so far. That’s even as the pandemic is still surging or staging a comeback in many parts of the world. In another potential tailwind for oil, analysts are forecasting a drop in American crude stockpiles, which would be the third straight weekly decline.

    “Expectations of a continuing U.S. fiscal stimulus have helped gains by creating a further negative outlook for the dollar and a positive outlook for the U.S. oil demand recovery,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. Further gains may be limited ahead as the global consumption recovery appears to have flatlined, she said.

    WTI for September delivery rose 0.4% to $42.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:38 a.m. in London

    It’s trading near it’s close of $42.19 on Aug. 5, which was the highest finish in five months.

    Brent for October settlement climbed 0.1% to $45.02 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after rising 1.3% on Monday.

    The contango in Brent’s three-month timespread was $1.05 a barrel, compared with 87 cents at the end of the July. The market structure -- where prompt contracts are cheaper than later-dated ones -- is an indication that nervousness over a supply glut is increasing.

    While OPEC+ production is starting to return, output from Norway is set to drop by 261,000 barrels a day in September, according to shipping schedules seen by Bloomberg. That would make it the biggest contributor to a decline in shipments by Atlantic Basin producers.

    And in a sign demand is starting to recover in the hard-hit jet fuel market, the quantity of commercial flights around the world rose almost 6% in the seven days to Sunday, according to FlightRadar24 data. However, the average number of 67,000 planes in the sky was still below more than 100,000 pre-virus.

    Surging diesel prices may be squeezing farmers across India’s vast hinterlands, but they’re also kindling the nation’s knack for improvisation.

    U.S. shale producers are at a crossroads as they find themselves more efficient than ever. They can keep drilling, and potentially dent oil prices, or use the money to pay down debt.

    Crude futures rose 0.4% to 285.4 yuan a barrel on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange after climbing 0.9% on Monday.

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