|2020-08-28 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据世界管道8月26日报道，自今年4月新冠肺炎疫情引发油价触底危机以来，世界石油需求以创纪录的速度增长，在过去4个月中增长了1300万桶/天。但根据IHS Markit最新一项分析显示，随着全球原油需求在略低于疫情爆发前水平附近趋于稳定，这一增长速度将逐渐放缓。
汽油零售在美国也是一个重要的指标。美国汽油零售销量超过了除中国大陆以外的任何其他市场的石油总需求。从IHS Markit的OPIS每周跟踪情况来看，美国汽油零售量在4月份降至去年同期水平的50%之后，5月至7月初的销量迅速增长。但自那以来，销量一直徘徊在比去年同期低17 至18%的水平。
王佳晶 摘译自 世界管道
World oil demand expected to plateau just below pre-COVID levels
World oil demand has grown at a record pace – by 13 million bpd in the last four months – since the bottom of the COVID-induced collapse in April. But that pace of growth is expected to taper off with global crude demand plateauing just below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis by IHS Markit.
Global crude demand surged from May to July with the easing of some COVID-19 restrictions and now rests at 89% of prior year levels, compared to being at 78% in April. IHS Markit expects demand growth to wane and plateau at 92-95 mbd (or roughly 92 - 95% of prior year levels) through the first quarter of 2021.
The main cause for the pause is expected to be travel –especially air travel and commuting to work – remaining subdued until COVID-19 is contained and are vaccines widely available.
“The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the COVID crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now. For demand to fully return, travel—especially air travel and commuting to work—needs to get back normal. And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines.”– Jim Burkhard, Vice President and head of oil markets, IHS Markit.
The number of air flights globally is about 30% below February levels (compared to 78% below in April). But actual jet fuel consumption is still 50% off prior year levels since long-distance flights have not recovered to the extent of shorter ones.
Retail gasoline sales in the United States are also an important signpost. US retail gasoline sales are bigger than total oil demand in any other market except mainland China. OPIS by IHS Markit tracks US retail gasoline sales each week. Sales improved rapidly from May to early July after falling to 50% prior year levels in April. But sales have hovered at 17 - 18% below earlier year levels since.
However, the expected plateau of global crude demand does not mean a return to the record levels of oversupply that crashed oil prices – briefly to less than $0/bbl – in April. Renewed restraint by OPEC+ members and lower US output still point to supply deficits in the second half of 2020.
Hitting the pause button on demand growth doesn’t mean a return to the supply overhang that cratered prices back in April. OPEC+ members have rediscovered production restraint since then and US output is expected to be lower as well. That means that markets can continue to rebalance, even if a full return to pre-COVID demand levels is put off for the time being.” – Jim Burkhard, Vice President and head of oil markets, IHS Markit.