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油价能否继续上涨 欧佩克+的供应决策很是关键

2021-01-04     来源: 中国石化新闻网
石化新闻

    中国石化新闻网讯 据12月29日FX Empire报道,周一,美国政府签署了2.3万亿美元的一揽子计划,将政府资金和新冠肺炎疫情救助措施结合在一起,使得那些高风险投机者难抑心中狂喜。标准普尔500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克100指数等美国基准股指收盘创下新高。然而,对即将出台的财政刺激措施,美国原油价格却没有表现出很高的热情。

    自9月初以来,原油价格大幅上涨,涨幅高达44%,达到3月以来的最高水平,但此后已趋于平稳。从数据分析的角度来看,这是一种健康的走势,因为根据其14天的指数来看,圣诞节前的价格已伸至超买区域。WTI原油期货价格周一下跌1.26%,周一已收复失地。

    同样,布伦特原油价格在同样的7周时间里上涨了44%,在如此迅速的上涨之后又开始变得平稳,布伦特原油期货价格昨天下跌了0.8%,现在正在努力弥补这些损失。

    回想一下,自11月初以来的大部分涨幅都与新冠肺炎疫苗的乐观发展态势相吻合,油价也因欧佩克+明年将以较慢的速度恢复石油供应的预期而进一步上涨。市场对油价飙升的解释是,低于此前预期的产量增幅将与疫苗催生的需求复苏同时出现,这降低了全球市场出现供应过剩的风险,同时保证了价格的上涨。

    这里不得不提的是1月初欧佩克+的关键举措。虽然新冠肺炎疫情的复苏正在侵蚀需求,但一些欧佩克+成员国似乎急于恢复更多的供应。想想这个月月初时,欧佩克+已经决定从本周五(1月1日)开始,将原油日产量提高幅度降至50万桶/天,这个数字低于此前计划的约200万桶/天的增产。

    欧佩克+将于下周召开会议,决定2月份的产量水平,而俄罗斯已经表示愿意进一步增加产量。俄罗斯副总理表示,每桶45美元至55美元的价格区间是“最优”的。尽管如此,其他主要欧佩克成员国仍希望可以将油价推得更高,以便为各自的财政计划提供资金。

    因此,1月份欧佩克+举行的会议可能会对油价是否能继续攀升,产生重大影响。

    王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire

    原文如下:

    When could we see $60 Oil again?

    Riskier assets couldn’t hold back their delight on Monday after President Trump signed off on the US$2.3 trillion package which combines government funding and pandemic relief measures.

    US benchmark stock indices such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq 100 closed at new record highs.

    However, US Crude prices did not share the same level of enthusiasm for the incoming fiscal stimulus.

    Having rallied hard since early September, gaining as much as 44 percent to hit its highest levels since March, Crude Oil has since plateaued. From a technical perspective, this was a healthy move, given that prices had far extended into overbought territory leading up to Christmas day, judging by its 14-day relative strength index. WTI crude futures fell 1.26 percent on Monday, before paring losses at the time of writing.

    Similarly, Brent Oil had gained 44 percent during that same 7-week period, before consolidating after such a rapid ascension. Brent futures registered a 0.8 percent decline yesterday and is now striving to erase those losses.

    Recall that much of those gains since early November coincided with positive developments surrounding a Covid-19 vaccine, and Oil prices were further boosted by expectations that OPEC+ would restore its Oil supplies at a slower pace next year. The narrative held by markets to justify the surge in Oil prices was that the lower-than-previously-expected output hike would occur alongside a vaccine-enabled demand recovery. Such supply-demand dynamics diminished the risk of oversupplied conditions in global markets, while warranting higher prices.

    Key OPEC+ moves in early January

    While the resurgent coronavirus is eroding demand, some OPEC+ members appear eager to restore more of their supply. Recall that the alliance of major Oil-producing nations had decided earlier this month to lower its output hike to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting from this Friday, January 1st. That 500,000 bpd figure is lower than the previous plan of hiking output by some 2 million bpd.

    However, OPEC+ is due to meet next week to decide on February’s production levels, and already Russia has indicated its willingness to increase output some more. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister has cited the $45-$55 range as “most optimal” for Oil prices. Still, other major OPEC+ members require Oil prices to be higher in order to fund their respective fiscal plans.

    Hence, it remains to be seen where the balance of power lies in next Monday’s meeting, and that may have a major say on whether Oil can continue climbing higher.

 
 
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